Survivorship Bias
We focus on surviving examples, overlooking those that didn't make it because they are less visible.
Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. During WWII, Abraham Wald was tasked with determining where to add armor to planes. He was given data on bullet holes from returning planes and recommended armoring the areas with no holes — because planes shot there didn't survive to return.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Startup Success Stories Business books celebrate the habits of successful founders but ignore the many founders with identical habits who failed.
- Marketing Testimonials Brands show only customers with positive experiences; the silent majority of mediocre experiences is invisible.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
Grace chooses a career in law after seeing successful lawyers on TV, not realizing that most lawyers struggle to find high-paying jobs.
She believes a particular diet is incredibly effective for weight loss because her friend lost 20 pounds on it, unaware that many others tried it and quit without results.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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