Clustering Illusion
We find patterns in random sequences that appear non-random to us.
The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable 'streaks' or 'clusters' arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. The effect has been seen in various human endeavors including sports, gambling, and financial markets. It is a type of apophenia — the general tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Basketball Hot Hand Basketball fans and commentators see 'hot streaks' in shooting where statistical analysis shows results are consistent with random chance.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
A person wins two small prizes from scratch-off lottery tickets in one day. They believe they are on a 'winning streak' and go buy a whole book of tickets.
After her yoga instructor adjusted her pose, Priya felt less back pain that evening. She believed the specific adjustment was the key and booked extra sessions.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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