Normalcy Bias
We underestimate the likelihood of a disaster and its potential effects on us.
Normalcy bias is a cognitive state people enter when facing a disaster or impending threat. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. People believe that since a disaster has never occurred before, it never will. This leads to inadequate preparation and delayed evacuation. During the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, many people walked toward the receding water out of curiosity rather than fleeing.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Hurricane Evacuation Residents in a hurricane evacuation zone delay leaving because they've lived through minor storms before, assuming this one will also be manageable — until the storm surge arrives.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
The bank sent a fraud alert about unusual activity in his area. Kevin glanced at it and decided it probably wasn't about his account, so he didn't call to verify.
A viral illness is spreading in nearby countries. He sees the headlines but books a cheap last-minute flight to a major hub in that region, thinking the risk is remote.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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