Zero-Risk Bias
We prefer complete elimination of a small risk over a proportionally larger reduction of a greater risk.
Zero-risk bias is a tendency to prefer the complete elimination of a risk even when alternative options produce a greater reduction in risk overall. People will pay more to reduce a risk from 5% to 0% than to reduce it from 50% to 10%, even though the second reduction is much larger in absolute terms. Public policy often falls prey to this: spending billions to eliminate a tiny risk while neglecting much larger but not-zero risks.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Organic Food Safety Consumers pay large premiums for zero-pesticide organic foods while ignoring larger dietary health risks.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
During a storm, Jordan decides to drive to the store for a single box of batteries, braving flooded roads, rather than risk his home's backup power failing later if the outage lasts longer than expected.
Your manager offers you two project options. Project A has a guaranteed small budget but zero chance of going over. Project B has a much larger budget but a 10% chance of a minor cost overrun. You choose Project A because you hate the thought of any overrun.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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