Hot-Hand Fallacy
We believe a person who has had recent successes has a greater chance of future successes.
The hot-hand fallacy (also known as the hot hand phenomenon or hot hand) is the fallacious belief that a person who has experienced success has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts. This may lead to people making decisions based on their (possibly false) belief that a 'hot' person will continue to perform above average.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Momentum Investing Investors chase fund managers with recent strong returns believing they'll continue outperforming, despite regression to the mean.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
After a friend recommends three great movies, you instantly agree to watch a fourth suggestion without checking reviews.
A chef who received praise for a new soup recipe decides to put it on the permanent menu without testing it further, believing it will always be a hit.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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