Illusory Correlation
We perceive a relationship between two unrelated events.
Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists. A classic example in psychology is the finding that people believe there is a relationship between certain personality traits and membership in a minority group, even when statistics show no such relationship. The effect leads to stereotyping.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Full Moon Crime Many police officers believe crime spikes during full moons; statistical analyses consistently find no such correlation.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
When she eats a big breakfast, Anna often has a stressful day at work. She has started skipping breakfast to avoid bad days.
He feels his allergies always flare up on days he uses the new laundry detergent. He's about to switch brands.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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