Murphy's Law Bias
The belief that if something can go wrong, it will, leading to over-preparation or pessimism.
This bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes. It often stems from a focus on past failures or anxiety about uncertainty. For example, someone might obsessively check if they locked their door, fearing it will inevitably be left open.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
When ordering food delivery, Riley tips 40% to 'prevent' the driver from messing up the order.
During the team project, Sam created a detailed 50-page contingency plan for every conceivable delay, from a team member catching a cold to the office internet failing, expecting all to occur.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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