Appeal to Probability
Assuming something is true or will happen simply because it is possible, not because it is likely.
This bias occurs when we treat a possibility as a certainty, ignoring the actual probability. It happens because our brains often struggle to intuitively grasp low likelihoods. For example, someone might buy a lottery ticket and plan how to spend the winnings, despite the extremely low odds of winning.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
Kevin goes skydiving without checking the equipment because the instructor seems experienced. He thinks it's possible everything will work perfectly, so it will.
She decides not to buy renter's insurance because her apartment building has never had a fire.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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