Subjective Validation
We perceive unrelated events as connected because of our belief that they must be.
Subjective validation is the perception that something is true if a person's belief demands it to be true. We see relationships and coincidences as meaningful because we want or need them to be. This underlies the acceptance of horoscopes, psychic readings, and superstitions — people remember the 'hits' and forget the far more numerous 'misses'.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Horoscope Accuracy A person reads their vague horoscope, selectively remembers the two events it seemed to predict, and ignores the ten events it did not — concluding astrology is accurate.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
A newspaper horoscope warns of financial challenges, and the reader immediately recalls a minor unexpected expense, concluding that the prediction was remarkably accurate and specific.
Mark thinks that seeing a white feather means a loved one is watching over him. He sees one after making a tough decision and feels reassured it was the right one.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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