Congruence Bias
We tend to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, rather than testing alternatives.
Congruence bias is the bias of subjects to test only their hypothesis and not to test alternative hypotheses. Even if evidence clearly suggests an alternative explanation, subjects tend to repeat trials that could only confirm the existing hypothesis rather than design trials that could disconfirm it. This differs from confirmation bias in that it occurs specifically in the context of hypothesis testing.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Software Debugging Developers convinced of one bug cause repeatedly test variations of the same assumption rather than questioning the assumption itself.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
David thinks his allergies are better because he switched to a new brand of laundry detergent. His symptoms decrease for a day. He decides the detergent is the solution without considering the weather change or other allergy medications.
Daniel thinks his car's battery is lasting longer after he started driving more. The battery holds charge better. He concludes more driving helps without considering that the temperature improved or the battery was recently serviced.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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