Representativeness Heuristic
We judge the probability of an event based on how much it resembles our mental prototype.
The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty. It was first proposed by Kahneman and Tversky. When evaluating a situation, people tend to compare it to an existing mental prototype. This can lead to the conjunction fallacy (assigning higher probability to specific conditions than general ones), base rate neglect, and stereotyping.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Linda Problem When told 'Linda is active in feminist causes', people rate 'Linda is a bank teller and feminist' as more probable than 'Linda is a bank teller' — a conjunction fallacy.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
A consumer buys a cereal because the box features a fit, smiling athlete, assuming the food must be healthy, without reading the nutrition label.
An investor puts all his money into a new tech startup because the young CEO reminds him of Steve Jobs. He skips reading the detailed financial projections.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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