Availability Cascade
A collective belief gains increasing plausibility through its growing public repetition.
An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse. A small risk is reported in media, which triggers concern, which triggers more reporting, which triggers policy responses, which triggers even more concern — regardless of the actual magnitude of the risk. The process amplifies perceived risks far beyond their statistical significance.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Politics Crime Wave Narrative Repeated news coverage of isolated violent incidents creates a narrative of a 'crime wave.' Public concern rises, politicians respond, media covers the response, and the cycle escalates — even as official crime statistics show no increase.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
After reading several online articles about the risks of a popular diet, Alex immediately stops following it, believing it's been proven unhealthy, even though the articles were opinion pieces, not clinical studies.
A series of dramatic news reports about shark attacks makes people perceive shark attacks as a common threat, leading to increased public concern that drives more media coverage, which further amplifies public fear in a self-reinforcing cycle of alarm.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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