Ambiguity Effect
We prefer options where the probability is known over options where the probability is unknown.
The ambiguity effect is a cognitive bias where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or 'ambiguity'. The effect implies that people tend to select options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is known, over an option for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown. This is related to the Ellsberg paradox and to risk aversion more broadly.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Job Offer Stability Candidates choose secure but modest job offers over exciting startups with ambiguous compensation structures, even when expected value favors the startup.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
An athlete trains with their longtime coach instead of switching to a more credentialed trainer, because the uncertainty about how the new trainer's methods will affect their performance makes the established coaching relationship feel more reliable despite potentially superior expertise.
A person keeps their existing internet provider rather than switching to a faster, cheaper competitor, because the uncertainty about the new provider's actual speeds and customer service makes their current mediocre service feel safer despite objectively better offers on the market.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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