Illusion of Control
We overestimate our ability to control events, especially random ones.
The illusion of control is the tendency for people to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes that they demonstrably cannot. It was identified by Ellen Langer in 1975. Lottery players pick their own numbers (the choice of numbers cannot affect outcomes). Gamblers believe they can control dice rolls by throwing harder. Stock traders believe their analysis influences stocks that are statistically random over short terms.
What it looks like in the wild.
- Everyday life Elevator Button Pressing 'Close door' buttons in many elevators are disconnected placebo buttons installed to give riders the feeling of control.
- Finance Active Trading An investor engages in frequent trades, convinced their active involvement improves returns, while evidence shows that passive index investing outperforms most active traders over time.
Someone has already built a business on this.
Biases are not only private errors. They are design targets — patterns deliberately engineered into interfaces because they reliably work.
- Games Skill Illusion in Slot Machines Modern slot machines allow players to 'stop' spinning reels manually, creating an illusion of skill-based control over purely random outcomes.
Recognising a definition is not the same skill as spotting it.
Two scenarios from the app, with distractors drawn from the same family of biases — which is what makes them hard.
Leo believes that if he taps the elevator button multiple times, it will make the elevator arrive faster, so he repeatedly presses it.
Priya always plants her garden in a specific astrological alignment. She believes the timing of the planting, more than the weather or soil, ensures a good harvest.
Biases rarely arrive alone.
Understand more. Assume less.
188 biases, 18,869 scenarios, and a record of how you actually decide.
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